Power Tips for Odds and Outs
Revealed in Detail "
"The Goal of
Poker is Not to Win Money,
It is to Play Your Cards Right"
By Mark Rossi
The Easy Example: A pocket pair
You start with a pair of Jacks in the pocket. Not too shabby. The
flop however, doesn't contain another Jack.
Power Tip #1: What's my chance
of getting a Jack on the turn?
You need to just figure out the number of outs and divide it by the
number of cards in the deck. There's
2 more Jacks. There's 47 more cards since you've seen five already.
The answer is 2/47, or .0426, close to 4.3%.
Power Tip #2: No luck on the
turn, how 'bout the river?
Still 2 Jacks left, but one less card in the deck bringing the grand
total to 46. What's 2/46? That's .0434, which is also close to 4.3% Your
chances didn't change much.
Power Tip #3: Screw getting
just one Jack! I want them both! What are my chances?
Since we're trying to figure out the chances of getting one on the
turn AND the river, and not getting one on EITHER the turn or river, we
don't have to reverse our thinking. Just multiply the probability of
each event happening. Chances of getting that first Jack on the turn was
.0426, remember? The chance of getting a second Jack on the river would
be 1/46, because there'll only be one Jack left in the deck. That's
about .0217, or 2.2%. To get the answer, multiply 'em.
.0426 X .0217 is about .0009! That's around one-tenth of a percent. I
wouldn't bank on that one.
Power Tip #4: Hey, what were my chances of getting a pair of Jacks
To figure that out, think of it as getting dealt one card, then
another. What are your chances of the second card matching the first
one? There will be 3 cards left like the one you have. There's 51 cards
left in the deck.
3/51 is .059 or 5.9%. Whats the chance that it'll be Jacks? Well,
there's 13 different cards. .049/13 is about .0045, a little less than
half a percent.
Power Tip #5: What were my
chances of getting a Jack on the flop?
Now you do have to "think in reverse" as in the previous example.
Figure out the chances of NOT getting a Jack on each successive card
flip. First card you have a 48/50 chance
(48 non-Jack cards left, 50 cards left in the deck), second card is
47/49, third card is 46/48. Those come out to .96, .959, and .958.
Multiply them and get .882, or an 88.2% chance of NOT getting any
Jacks on the flop. Invert it to figure out what your chances really are
and you get .118 or 11.8%. This will be your chance to get one or two
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